Uncategorized – Two blokes…and so many topics

If you’ve ever wondered what the world will be like for your children, you probably know something about climate change.

You know it will be warmer, right? More storms, heavier rain. Droughts, more fires.

Sounds grim, but it’s pretty abstract. Probably won’t affect my kids.

Let’s make it a little more real. Based on the latest research, these are the kinds of things that could happen—soon:

Year	Incident
2023	Greenland ice melt continues to increase.
	Wildfires destroy record acreage.
	Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) grows more erratic.
	July land surface temperature reaches 1.61° C above 20^th century average in U.S.
	Air quality below EPA standards across 80% of U.S.
	Drought in northwest and southwest U.S. continues.
	Agriculture production in California is 15% below 21^st century average.
	Actions of many wealthy nations—including the U.S.—are still consistent with a greater than 3° C warming.
	Droughts intensify in northern Argentina and South Africa.
	Global land surface temperature for 2023 reaches 1.52° C above the average for the 20^th century.
2024	Drought extends from Great Plains through Indiana and southern Michigan for a second year.
	IPCC projects that the remaining carbon budget with a 50% chance to stay under 1.5° C is down to 250 Gt. Global emissions in 2023 were 46 Gt.
	Corn production is 16% below 21^st century average due to resurgence of corn borer.
	Power outages affect as many as 50% of households in Arizona and southern California.
	Drought in northern Mexico continues.
	Mexico requests food aid from the U.S.
	Dengue fever outbreaks occur in Tennessee and Maryland.
	Record ten hurricanes make landfall in the U.S.—three in the Gulf, five in the southeast, and two in the northeast. Estimated property damage exceeds $350 billion.
	Philippines hit with a category 5 typhoon: winds of 160 mph. Death toll estimated at over 100,000.
	Florida trucks fresh water to Dade County for six months after record storm surge disrupts normal supply.
	Flash floods claim 1,826 lives for the year. Estimated property and infrastructure damage exceeds $50 billion.
2025	Insect damage to Rocky Mountain forests from Colorado to Montana at worst level ever.
	July land surface temperature reaches 1.72° C above 20^th century average in U.S.
	Hurricane Donald comes ashore at Galveston, which is totally flooded and 80% destroyed. Heavy rainfall floods 40% of Houston.
	Grain production—wheat, corn, soybeans–in the U.S. is 25% below 21^st century average.
	Lake Mead falls below 1,000 feet above sea level, 25 feet below the level of the last agreement on water rights.
	Further cuts in electricity generation. More fighting about who gets water.
	U.S. unable to meet Mexico’s new food aid requests.

Given that our forecasts of the scale and the rate of change have routinely been too optimistic, it could be worse. Certainly, it will be later:

Year	Incident
2026	Atmospheric river dumps up to 18 inches of rain in four days over the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys causing widespread flooding—nearly as bad as the Great Flood of 1862.
	Sea level rise for the previous 10 years doubles from 20^th century average.
	Antarctica ice melt speeds up.
	Large areas of northwestern Netherlands flood, displacing over half a million people.
	Dead zones appear off the California coast due to ocean acidification and de-oxygenation.
	Over 50% of the coral reefs in the U.S. Virgin Islands die.
	Wildfires again destroy record acreages in the western states.
2027	Snowpack in California at lowest level ever recorded.
	Colorado River water flow lowest in recorded history.
	Construction begun on massive pipeline to move Mississippi water to U.S. southeast. Project expected to take 10 years.
	Arctic Sea virtually ice free years ahead of projections.
	Almost 90% of Great Barrier reef is dead.
	Arizona and New Mexico truck water to native American communities throughout both states.
	U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that 14 invasive plant species are now resistant to all commercially available pesticides.
	Chile institutes water rationing in all major cities as freshwater run-off from Andes glaciers falls to 30% of 20th century average.
	Flash floods claim 3,478 lives for the year.
	Heat waves estimated to have caused 15,000 excess deaths in U.S. cities.
2028	Melting of Antarctic ice has doubled since 2020. Probability of two-meter sea level rise by 2100 put at 50%.
	July land surface temperature reaches 1.79° C above 20^th century average in U.S.
	The U.N. reports that 83 million people were refugees world-wide. Over 10 million were from Bangladesh alone.
	Hurricane floods Mobile, Alabama, and neighboring coastal areas.
	Cost of property insurance has increased 300% for property within 50 miles of the southeastern and Gulf coasts.
	Trumpist candidate elected president.
2029	U.S. withdraws from all U.N. climate change initiatives and all refugee programs.
	EPA rescinds all restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions.
	President stops Mississippi River water project, claiming federal government shouldn’t subsidize California agriculture.
	Category 5 hurricane hits Savannah, Georgia. Over 1,800 die, mostly in the storm surge.
	Federal government places caps on disaster aid per incident and per state.
	India invades Nepal over water dispute.
	Arizona takes water from the Colorado that belongs to California.
	Flash floods claim 6,718 lives for the year.
	Greenland ice melt sets record.
2030	Wildfires, insects, and disease have reduced U.S. forests’ ability to capture CO₂ by 40%.
	AMOC has clearly stopped.
	France reports its insect population has fallen by 70% since 2000.
	California farmers take control of dams and aqueducts.
	Presidential order restricts reporting on climate change effects to protect national security. Supreme Court upholds the order.

I have been remiss in initiating my ranting so I thought I would begin with a 2011 Facebook rant of mine that I think is still germane. Despite Trump’s desire to get our NATO allies to pony up more money for common defense, he also wants to increase the US Defense spending by 100 billion dollars. So forgive me for thinking that he has no desire to recoup defense dollars for more humble projects, like the the education of our children – that is another rant which I also posted on Facebook in 2011 and will try to update. I will attempt to update this rant, but for the moment this is what I posted nearly 6 years ago.

I generated this analysis based on 2009 data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and there’s scant reason to think it has changed since then. In 2009 the total spent on defense by the US and allies* totaled 1.19 trillion dollars. However the contribution by country was far from equal. The US spent 4.7% of its GDP on defense. While surpassed by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Israel, Oman and Iraq, the other 39 countries spent under 2%. Had the US and each country spent 2.91% of their respective GDPs, the grand total, from all countries, would have still amounted to 1.19 trillion, no overall decrease in the allies defense spending. But it would have led to a decrease of 255 billion in the US spending, and an increase of 175 billion coming from Japan, Germany, and Italy, countries with a large US military presence.
This is not to say that they necessarily spend less than they ought; but that we spend far more than we should, and we are heavily subsidizing the defense of these countries.

* I used allies because, with these countries, one assumes defense is a shared enterprise. Determining who are America’s allies can be subjective. The graph includes countries in NATO, and those with which we have defense agreements. Plus if our troops are stationed in a country I will call it an ally because it benefits from our activity (perhaps dubious benefit). Thus Iraq, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia are “allies.” However debatable “allies” turn out to have a negligible impact in this analysis.

Category: Uncategorized

How bad will it be?

Defense Spending Rant